Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era
Department of Technology Development Studies, Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Tehran, Iran
10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
Abstract
his study aims to develop and apply an integrated Fuzzy DANP-based framework for prioritizing renewable-digital hybrid technology bundles in Iran. This applied research adopts a mixed-method (survey-analytical) approach. The study population comprised experts in energy, information technology, and policy-making in Iran. Twelve participants were selected . Data collection instruments included fuzzy pairwise comparison and performance evaluation questionnaires. For data analysis, the Fuzzy DANP method was employed to model the causal network relationships among criteria and calculate dependency-based weights. The causal network analysis identified 'Digitalization Capability' as a key causal factor with a Prominence-Cause (D-R) value of +1.96 ± 0.23, significantly influencing economic and environmental criteria. Based on the dependency-based weights derived from Fuzzy ANP, the final ranking of hybrid bundles was: Solar-Digital Bundle (Score: 0.823), Wind-Digital Bundle (0.761), and Hydro-Digital Bundle (0.654). Sensitivity analysis, involving ±20% variations in the weights of key causal criteria, confirmed the stability of this ranking. The proposed framework, by revealing the central role of digitalization as a systemic driver, provides a more powerful and practical tool for policymakers. The findings suggest that Iran's energy policy should move beyond merely supporting renewable technologies and focus on fostering investment in integrated smart hybrid bundles, particularly solar-digital systems.
Emamian, Y. and Mousavi Dorcheh, S. M. (2025). Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era. Journal of Technology Development Management, 13(2), -. doi: 10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
MLA
Emamian, Y. , and Mousavi Dorcheh, S. M. . "Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era", Journal of Technology Development Management, 13, 2, 2025, -. doi: 10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
HARVARD
Emamian, Y., Mousavi Dorcheh, S. M. (2025). 'Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era', Journal of Technology Development Management, 13(2), pp. -. doi: 10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
CHICAGO
Y. Emamian and S. M. Mousavi Dorcheh, "Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era," Journal of Technology Development Management, 13 2 (2025): -, doi: 10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
VANCOUVER
Emamian, Y., Mousavi Dorcheh, S. M. Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era. Journal of Technology Development Management, 2025; 13(2): -. doi: 10.22104/jtdm.2026.8090.3489
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