Technology Forecasting Researches in Selected area of Solar Energy: Use the patent Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

Document Type : Research Paper



Technology forecasting is planned starting point and is considered as management tool. Forecasting directly related to the future. Aim of technology forecasting is provide usful information to IT management. Solar energy is a renewable energy technology is generally of two types: on is thermal system and another is photovoltaic (solar electricity). Due to increasing and countries to produce electricity and faced with shortage of resource, the focus of this research on forecasting photovoltaic technology.In this study in order to Forecasting technology researches in solar energy area, extracted patents from USPTO (united state patent and trademark office) during the years 1985 to 2016 , were analyzed using the patent Analysis. Then using the artificial neural network clustering method and as well as combined analysis covered and not covered, research gaps were analyzed . results show that the future of photovoltaic technology research towards third generation technology (organic matter) and also focuses on environmental parameters and their impact on performance photovoltaic systems.


Main Subjects


    • زارع احمدآبادی، حبیب ؛ یوسف تبار میری، صادق.(1392)." پیش بینی فناوری با تحلیل محتوای حق ثبت اختراع؛ تحلیلی بر آینده فناوری لعاب" ، فصلنامه مدیریت توسعه فناوری، سال اول، شماره 2، صص 57-85.

    • زالی، نادر.(1390). " آینده نگاری راهبردی و سیاست گذاری منطقه ای با رویکرد سناریو نویسی"، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال چهارم، شماره چهارم،صص 54- 33.

    • مجید فر، فرزان؛ تفضلی شادپور، محمد.(1389). " ارائه یک الگوی ارزیابی و پیش بینی تکنولوژی بر اساس آنالیز و متن کاوی اختراعات ثبت شده"، چهارمین کنفرانس ملی مدیریت تکنولوژی ایران.

    • مجیدفر، فرزان؛ مجیدفر، فرشید؛ محمدی، کمال؛ معصومی، غلامعلی؛ تفضلی شادپور، محمد.(1388). "پیش بین نوآوری های تکنولوژیک خودروهای هیبرید توسط فرایند پیشنهادی داده کاوی در پایگاه های داده ای اختراعات ثبت شده : مورد کاوی سیستم کنترل هیبرید" ، هشتمین همایش مراکز تحقیق و توسعه صنایع و معادن.

    • نوری، سیامک؛ ایوبی، مریم.(1388). " توسعه مدل آینده نگاری مبتنی بر پیمایش محیطی"، مجله مدیریت فردا، شماره 22، سال هشتم، صص66-55.

    • وندل، بل.(1391)." مبانی آینده پژوهی"، مترجم مصطفی تقوی، محسن محقق، تهران، مرکز آینده پژوهی علوم و فناوری دفاعی. 

    • Abraham، B. P. and S. D. Moitra .(2001). "Innovation assessment through patent analysis", Innovation , 245–252.

    • Bjorn L, Lubeck L. (2003), “Foresight – a successful project, with many lessons learned”, The second international conference on technology foresight,Tokyo, Swedish Technology.

    • Bower J. L. and. Christensen C. M,(2012). “Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave,”Harvard Business Review:43-53.

    • Chen، Y.-H.، C.-Y. Chen، et al. (2011). “Technology forecasting and patent strategy of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies” Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 6957-6969.

    • Cohen، W. M. and S. A. Merrill .(2003). “Patents in the Knowledge-Based Economy”, Washington، DC، The National Academic Press.

    • Choi,J.Hwang,Y.(2013).”Patent keyword network analysis for impovering technology development efficiency”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change,TFS-17787 No13.  

    • Cooper، R. S. and S. A. Merrill، Stephen A .(1997). “US Industry: Restructuring and Renewal – Industrial Research and Innovation Indicators” ,Washington، DC،National Academy Press ,120-129    

    • Deng، Z.، B. Lev، et al. (1999). "Science and technology as predictors of stock performance", Technovation , 20-32.

    • Ernst، H. (1995). "Patenting strategies in the German mechanical engineering industry and their relationship to company performance”, Technological Forecasting & Social Chang ,191-203

    • Ernst، H. (2003). "Patent information for strategic technology management." ,World Patent Information ,233-242.

    • Fayyad, U., Piatetsky-Shapiro, G., Smyth, P.(2005). “The KDD Process for Extracting Useful Knowledge from Volumes of Data”, Communications of the ACM, 27-34.

    • Gordon T. J. and Glenn J. C., eds.(2003). “Futures Research Methodogy”, published by

    • the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University.

    • Jeong,Y.Lee,K.Yoon,B.Phaal,R.(2015).”Development of a roadmap through the enerative Topographic mapping and Bass diffusion model”, Journal of Engineering and Technology management.112-123.             

    • Luhn, H.P. (1957) "A statistical approach to mechanized encoding and searching of literary information", IBM Journal of Research and Development, 1: 309-317.

    • Miles, I., Keenan, M. (2000) "Overview of Methods used in Foresight", Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, UK.

    • Narin, F. (1998).”Patents as Indicators for the Evaluation of Industrial Research Output”, Scientometrics, 489-496.

    • Noh,Y; Jo, Y and Lee,S.(2015)." Keyword Selection and Processing Strategy for application text mining to patent analysis”, Expert System With Applications, page 13-24.

    • Porter A. L., et al.(1991). “Forecasting and Management of Technology” , New York: John Wiley.

    • Porter, A. (2003), “Text mining for technology forecasting”, J.C. Glenn, T.J.Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology, American Council for the UNU, Washington, DC.

    • Porter A. L and S. W. Cunningham.(2004). “Tech Mining”, Wiley, New York. 231-247.

    • Rajman, M., Lebart, L.(2003). “Similarities for Textual Data”, In 4th International Conference on Statistical Analysis of Textual Data.

    • Santo, M, et al. (2006), “Text mining as a valuable tool in foresight exercises:A study on nanotechnology” Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73,1013–1027.

    • Singh, Neha et al, (2007), “Text mining a decade of progress in hospitality human resource management research: Identifying emerging thematic development”,Hospitality Management 26, 131–147.

    • Thomas، P. and G. S. Mcmillan (2001). "Using science and technology indicators to manage R&D as a business, Expert System, " 9-14.

    • Trappey, C. V. (2010), "Clustering Patents Using Non-exhaustive Overlaps”,19, 162-181.

    • Trappey، C. V.، H.-Y. Wu، et al. (2011). "Using patent data for technology forecasting: China RFID patent analysis." Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 53-64.

    • Vanston J. H.(2008).”Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management “ , Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc

    • Watts, Robert J .and Porter, Alan L. (2009). “Innovative Forecasting” ,Technological Forecasting and Social Change . 25-47.

    • Wu ,J,et al.(2016).” A patent quality analysis and classification system using self-organization map with support vector machine” , Applied soft computing.305-316.


Volume 4, Issue 1
June 2016
Pages 149-171
  • Receive Date: 04 December 2016
  • Revise Date: 10 April 2017
  • Accept Date: 29 May 2017
  • First Publish Date: 29 May 2017