A Fuzzy-Diffusion Framework to forecast Iran Internet Penetration

Document Type : Research Paper



Internet as a new phenomenon in recent two decades is an essential basis for Information and Communication Technology applications and developments, so internet infrastructure development is a major priority in many countries.
This paper investigates to develop a comprehensive pattern titled fuzzy-diffusion framework to forecast Internet penetration rate in different countries by applying the theory of diffusion and fuzzy-control method. Applying fuzzy-control method for clustering the samples and building up a model not only gives us a chance to apply many more samples with different criteria to make the pattern but also makes it possible to present special predictions for each country regarding its distinctive characteristics. This pattern with regard to its given data from 1992 to 2006 has been classified for 153 countries in 3 clusters and applied according to the diffusion models and theories.
Results of this model for case-study of Iran shows this pattern's estimation has lower MSE than whole countries model and forecast in year 2014, Iran Internet penetration rate will reach to 56.26 percent.