A hybrid approach for selecting appropriate technological forecasting technique

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant professor, Technology Management, Faculty of management, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 null

3 Master of MBA, university of tehran

4 Master of management of technology, university of tehran

Abstract

As technological advances and environmental changes accelerate, technology-based corporations increasingly understand the need to forecast and comprehend future developments in the environment. Due to the technological conditions and desired criteria, it is not possible to use all methods of technology forecasting simultaneously. Therefore, it is necessary to select an effective and efficient method for forecasting specific technology. Considering the multiplicity of effective criteria on this choice and the difference in the importance between these criteria for choosing the appropriate technology forecasting method, the use of multi-criteria decision-making methods has been considered by the experts of this field. In this regard, this paper aims to provide a framework for selecting the appropriate technology forecasting method. For this purpose, firstly, by review the literature, the appropriate indicators for choosing the technology forecasting method were extracted. After the criteria were finalized with the help of the members of the relevant committee and using multi-criteria decision-making methods, the weight of each criterion was calculated and then the forecasting methods considered for aircraft engine were evaluated and prioritized. The results indicate that the Delphi forecasting method can be used as the best method for technology forecasting in this area.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Technology Development Management
Volume 4, Issue 4
February 2017
Pages 163-194

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History

  • Receive Date: 14 June 2017
  • Revise Date: 22 January 2018
  • Accept Date: 14 February 2018

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