A Systematic Model for the Diffusion of Commercial Soft Technology in Iran’s Oil Industry

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student in Systems Management, Management Department, Faculty of Management and Economy, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.

2 Professor, Management Department, Faculty of Management and Economy, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Management Department, Faculty of Management and Economy, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

The present study was conducted with an innovative approach and the integration of system dynamics with grounded theory to present a systematic model for commercial soft technology diffusion in the Iranian oil industry, and was carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the grounded theory was used and in-depth interviews with 19 experts who dominated in the process of commercial soft technology diffusion in the Iranian oil industry were carried out. As a result, a total of 785 final codes, 184 concepts, and 71 sub-categories were extracted. In the second stage, a systematic model of the system dynamics was used. The key variables of the system model were extracted from the first stage coding and a systematic model was developed in the form of 18 reinforcing loops and 4 equilibrium loops Subsequently, the stack flow model was formulated and after the validation of the model through the test of behavioral and sensitivity analysis, scenarios were generated and simulated. The model data was gathered through experts’ comments and the model was simulated for a period of 50 years from 2011 to 2061 The results indicate that the best priorities for improving the process of commercial soft technology diffusion in the Iranian oil industry are training, the establishment of an organizational structure, outsourcing and, ultimately, research and development.
 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

 
- استرمن، ج. (2000). پویایی‌شناسیکسب‌وکار: تفکرسیستمیومدل‌سازیبرایجهانیپیچیده. ترجمه کورش برارپور، مرضیه امامی، پریسا موسوی اهرنجانی، بنفشه بهزاد، لاله رضایی عدل، حسن فغانی (1393)، چاپ اول، سمت: تهران.
- الهی، ش. و غریبی، ج.، و مجیدپور، م.، و انواری رستمی، ع.ا. (1394). مسیر اشاعه فناوری‌های انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر: رویکرد نظریه‌سازی بنیادی. مدیریت نوآوری، 4(2)، 56-33.
- بهرامی، آ.، و یادگارزاده، غ.، و پرند، ک. (1386). تعیین خط‌مشی‌ها و عوامل اثرگذار در ارزشیابی درونی گروه‌های آموزشی: رویکردی بر اساس پویایی سیستم. پژوهش و برنامه‌ریزی در آموزش عالی، 44، 49-84.
- حیدریه، س. ع.، و سید حسینی، س.م.، و شهابی، ع. (1392). شبیه‌سازی مدل پذیرش فناوری در ایران با رویکرد پویایی سیستم (مطالعه موردی بانکداری ایران). مدیریت توسعه فناوری، 1(1)، 98-67.
- رادفر، ر.، و خمسه، ع.(1395). مدیریت تکنولوژی نگرشی جامع بر تکنولوژی، نوآوری و تجاری‌سازی. چاپ اول، تهران: انتشارات علمی و فرهنگی.
- سوشیل، ج. (1993). پویایی‌های سیستم رویکردی کاربردی برای مسائل مدیریتی. ترجمه ابراهیم تیموری، علیرضا نورعلی، نریمان ولی‌زاده (1393)، چاپ چهارم، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران: تهران.
- کاظمی، ع.، کسایی، م. (1380). مدیریت تولید و عملیات. چاپ اول. تهران: نشر سمت.
- مصلح، ع. ن.، و نظری، م. (1395). طراحی مدل ‌انتقال ‌فناوری نرم‌تجاری با رویکرد برنامه‌ریزیتعاملی (موردکاوی: بنگاه‌های‌کوچک‌ و‌ متوسط شهرک صنعتی آق قلا). رساله دکتری مدیریت سیستم‌ها دانشگاه شیراز.
- مصلح، ع. ن.، و نظری، م. (1395). طراحی مدل ‌انتقال ‌فناوری نرم‌تجاری با رویکرد برنامه‌ریزیتعاملی (موردکاوی: بنگاه‌های‌کوچک‌ و‌ متوسط شهرک صنعتی آق قلا). رساله دکتری مدیریت سیستم‌ها دانشگاه شیراز.
- موسوی حقیقی، م.، و تاجیک، م. (1393). شبیه‌سازی فرآیند اشاعه محصولات نوین با رویکرد پویایی‌های سیستم. مدیریت نوآوری، 3(3)، 99-77.
- نوروزی، ن.، و شاه‌میری، ف. (1387). بررسی برنامه‌ها و سیاست‌های انتشار فناوری در کشور ترکیه. رشد فناوری، 4(16)، 54-47.
 
- Amelia, D. F., Kopainsky, B., & Nyanga, P. H. (2014, July). Exploratory model of conservation agriculture adoption and diffusion in Zambia: a dynamic perspective. In Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, The Netherlands (pp. 20-24).
- Amelia, D. F., Kopainsky, B., & Nyanga, P. H. (2014, July). Exploratory model of conservation agriculture adoption and diffusion in Zambia: a dynamic perspective. In Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, The Netherlands (pp. 20-24).
- Archibugi, D., & Pietrobelli, C. (2003). The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries: Windows of opportunity or further burden?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(9), 861-883.
- Botchie, D., Sarpong, D., & Bi, J. (2018). A comparative study of appropriateness and mechanisms of hard and soft technologies transfer. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 131, 214-226.
- Burgess, T. F., & Gules, H. K. (1998). Buyer–supplier relationships in firms adopting advanced manufacturing technology: an empirical analysis of the implementation of hard and soft technologies. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 15(2), 127-152.
- Creswell, W. J. (2007). Qualitative inquiry and research design.London, Sage publications.
- Cohen, L.; Manion, L.; Morrison, K. (2007).Research Methods in Education. NewYork, Routledge.
- Dutta, A., Puvvala, A., Roy, R., & Seetharaman, P. (2017). Technology diffusion: Shift happens—The case of iOS and Android handsets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118, 28-43.
- Dykes, K., & Sterman, J. (2010). Boom and bust cycles in wind energy diffusion due to inconsistency and short-term bias in national energy policies. In International Conference on System Dynamics.
- Geroski, P. A. (2000). Models of technology diffusion. Research policy, 29(4), 603-625.
- Giovanni, Z., Maliheh, G., Eleonora, F., & Alberto, D. M. (2016). The Smart Home Services Diffusion Process: A System Dynamics Model. In Delft, Netherlands (The 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society).
- Hekkert, M. P., Suurs, R. A., Negro, S. O., Kuhlmann, S., & Smits, R. E. (2007). Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change. Technological forecasting and social change, 74(4), 413-432.
- Huang, H. C., & Shih, H. Y. (2014). Exploring the structure of international technology diffusion. Foresight, 16(3), 210-228.
- Jayendran, V., Siddhartha, P. (2016). Modeling New Product Diffusion under Uncertainty. In Delft, - Netherlands (The 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society).
- Jin, Z. (2005).Global Technological Change from Hard Technology to Soft Technology. Intellect Books, the UK.
- Kumar, A., Shankar, R., & Momaya, K. S(2015). The Bass Diffusion Model does not explain diffusion. In Cambridge, MA, USA (The 33th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society).
- Kumar, L., Malathy, D., & Ganesh, L. S. (2011). The diffusion of ATM technology in Indian banking. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(4), 483-500.
- Lehtovaara, M., Karvonen, M., Kapoor, R., Sakari Kässi, T., & Pyrhönen, J. (2014). Major factors contributing to wind power diffusion. Foresight, 16(3), 250-269.
- Leusin, M., Maldonado, M. U., Vaz, C., & Miguel, P. C. (2017). Technological Innovation Systems: Understanding the Wind Energy Diffusion Dynamics in Brazil. In Energy in Eurasia: Economic Perspectives on Challenges, Risks and Opportunities, 2nd IAEE Eurasian Conference, Oct 12-14, 2017. International Association for Energy Economics.
- Lundvall, B. Å. (Ed). (2010). National systems of innovation: Toward a theory of innovation and interactive learning (Vol. 2). Anthem Press.
- Meyer, P. E., & Winebrake, J. J. (2009). Modeling technology diffusion of complementary goods: The case of hydrogen vehicles and refueling infrastructure. Technovation, 29(2), 77-91.
- Miller, D., & Garnsey, E. (2000). Entrepreneurs and technology diffusion: How diffusion research can benefit from a greater understanding of entrepreneurship. Technology in Society, 22(4), 445-465.
- Ojiako, U., & Aleke, B. (2011). Symbols as cultural expressions of technology diffusion. Society and Business Review, 6(3), 198-213.
- Puvvalaa, A., Dutta, A., & Royb, R. (2014). Calibrating System Dynamics Models of Technology Diffiushion with Strctural Breaks: the Case of Android Handsets. In Delft, Netherlands (The 32th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society).
- Rogers, E. M. (2010).Diffusion of innovations. Simon and Schuster.
- Rogers, E.M. (1983). Diffusion of Innovations. The Free Press, New York.
- Rogers, E. M. (2003). Elements of diffusion. Diffusion of innovations, 5, 1-38.
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1939).Business cycles. (Vol. 1): Cambridge Univ Press.
- Shirazi, A. N. M., Mohammadi, A., Abbasi, A., & Nazari, M. (2016). An Introduction on Principles of Soft Technology Philosophy and Transfer of Commercial Soft Technology from the View of Systematic Approach of Interactive Planning. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Technology. Vol., 3 (5), 194-201.
- Sterman, J. D. J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world (No. HD30. 2 S7835 2000).
- Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill, New York.
- Suriaach, J.; Autant-Bernard, C.; Manca, F.; Massard, N.; Moreno, R. (2009). The diffusion/adoption of innovation in the internal market: Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN). European Commission.
- Tsai, J. M., & Hung, S. W. (2014). A novel model of technology diffusion: System dynamics perspective for cloud computing. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 33, 47-62.
- Valente, T. W. (1993). Diffusion of innovations and policy decision‐making. Journal of Communication, 43(1), 30-45.
- Wunderlich, P. E., & Grobler, A. (2012). Using system dynamics to analyze innovation diffusion processes within intra-organizational networks. In St. Gallen, Switzerland. (The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society).
Journal of Technology Development Management
Volume 6, Issue 3
November 2019
Pages 41-70

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 05 July 2018
  • Revise Date: 30 December 2018
  • Accept Date: 11 December 2018

Share

How to cite

Statistics