Drawing and rating scenarios of the future of Iran's power industry utilizes the fuzzy cognitive map and Scenario analysis

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Since the identification of the most appropriate future technology for the power industry at least at the national level, by using multi-disciplinary techniques of futurism, the present research drawing and rating scenarios of the future of Iran's power industry utilizes the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and Scenario analysis. FCM process conducted by in-depth interviews with experts in the power industry continues until achieving theoretical saturation. FCM of the power industry that is the same as gathering information and input phase of the future studies process is achieved. FCM has three step of scenario writing, simulation scenarios based on FCM and ranking the scenarios. In the first step, four technology-based scenarios for the future of power industry, which are the result of investment priorities in the industry, are determined so that in the next step by placing these scenarios in the FCM of Iran power industry, simulation of these scenarios based on the FCM is carried out. In the final step, the ranking of the scenarios resulted from the results of simulation of scenarios is performed using TOPSIS technique. Accordingly, the scenario of electricity generation development from new and renewable energy is the first priority. Smart power grid development scenario has the second priority, continuing past routines scenario power generation based on fossil plant has the third priority, and the scenario of the development of nuclear energy in power generation has the fourth priority in order to achieve the desirable future of the power industry from the perspective of this study.

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Volume 3, Issue 1
June 2014
Pages 101-134
  • Receive Date: 25 August 2015
  • Revise Date: 08 May 2016
  • Accept Date: 13 July 2016
  • First Publish Date: 13 July 2016