پیش‌بینی انتشار فناوری رایانش ابری در ایران بوسیله منحنی‌های رشد و اثرات روند انتشار سایر کشورها

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی، دانشکده مدیریت ، دانشگاه تهران، تهران ، ایران

2 دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

رایانش ابری تحولی عظیم در عالم فناوری اطلاعات است که منابع و خدمات را از طریق اینترنت ارائه می‌دهد. این پژوهش به‌پیش‌بینی انتشار فناوری رایانش ابری در ایران و ده کشور دیگر جهان می‌پردازد. در راستای سنجش انتشار فناوری، از میزان جستجوی اینترنتی کلیدواژه رایانش ابری استفاده‌شده است. این پژوهش از دید نوع تحقیق بر مبنای هدف اثری توسعه‌ای – کاربردی بوده و ازلحاظ روش تحقیق بکار گرفته‌شده و نحوه گردآوری داده‌ها، روش تحقیق توصیفی – پیمایشی و همبستگی می‌باشد. برای پیش‌بینی فناوری رایانش ابری در ایران، از برازش منحنی‌های رشد روی ‌داده‌های انتشار فناوری در ایران از یکسو و روند انتشار در سایر کشورها و اثرات مقطعی کشورها روی روند انتشار فناوری در ایران از سوی دیگر بهره جسته شده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از اشباع فناوری رایانش ابری در سال 2018 در ایران می‌باشد. همچنین تأخر در شروع انتشار این فناوری در ایران، منجر به‌سرعت بالاتر انتشار در ایران بنا به اثر تقدم و تأخر نشده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Cloud Computing Technology Diffusion Forecasting in Iran by employing Growth Curves & Cross Country's diffusion trends Impact

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Jafarnejad Chaghooshi 1
  • Nima Mokhtarzadeh Garoosi 1
1 Faculty of Management,Management Department,University of Tehran,Tehran,Iran
چکیده [English]

Cloud computing is a megatrend in IT territory which provides resources & services over internet. This study is about cloud computing technology forecasting in Iran & 10 other countries around the world. Technology keyword search trend over internet is employed as technology diffusion indicator. This study is an applied & Developmental research and a descriptive - survey with correlation methodology employed . In order to forecast cloud computing technology diffusion in Iran, Growth Curves were fitted on diffusion data in Iran on one hand & on the other hand, diffusion trends in other countries and cross country impacts on technology diffusion trend in Iran, was explored. Findings demonstrates saturation will take place in 2018 in Iran. In addition, lag in cloud computing technology's diffusion initiation in Iran in comparison to other countries, haven't led to accelerated diffusion rate according to lead-lag effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cloud Computing
  • Growth Curves
  • Lead-lag effect
  • Technology Diffusion
  • Technology Forecasting
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