تأثیر آینده نگاری علم و فناوری بر عملکرد سازمانی در شرکتهای نوپا (مورد: شرکتهای پارک علم و فناوری قزوین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.

3 دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

4 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت، دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد اجا، تهران، ایران

10.22104/jtdm.2025.6942.3329

چکیده

اینکه آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری به عنوان یک فرآیند نسبتا زمان‌بر و هزینه‌بر چقدر می‌تواند در عمل منجر به بهبود عملکرد شرکت‌های مذکور گردد محل سؤال است. مقاله حاضر، با هدف بررسی تأثیر آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری بر ابعاد مختلف عملکرد سازمانی در شرکت‌های نوپا و مطالعه موردی شرکت‌های پارک علم و فناوری قزوین انجام پذیرفته که برای سنجش عملکرد سازمانی از کارت امتیازی متوازن (BSC) بهره می‌برد. داده‌ها به دو شیوه اسنادی و میدانی گردآوری شده‌اند. به منظور گردآوری داده‌های میدانی، از ابزار پرسشنامۀ بسته استفاده شده و آراء خبرگان و کارشناسان در شرکت‌های مدنظر پژوهش به کمک این ابزار جمع‌آوری شدند. سپس به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها، از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری جهت تبیین روابط بین متغیرها و همچنین نرم‌افزار PLS Smart استفاده شد. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهند که آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری به طور معناداری ابعاد مختلف عملکرد سازمانی در شرکت‌های نوپا را متأثر می‌سازد. بر اساس مقادیر بدست آمده برای ضرایب مسیر (β)، آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری بیشترین تأثیر را به ترتیب بر ابعاد مشتری (0.881)، یادگیری (0.857)، مالی (0.790) و فرآیندها (0.757) دارد که این بروندادِ تحقیق می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیری مدیران شرکت‌های مورد مطالعه در خصوص بکارگیری آینده‌نگاری علم و فناوری کمک نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of science and technology foresight on organizational performance in Early-Stage Companies (case study: Qazvin Science and Technology Park companies)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Moslem Shirvani Naghani 1
  • Khalil Koulivand 2
  • Seyed Morteza Mortazavi 3
  • Ismail Khatib 4
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 PhD student of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
3 PhD in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
4 Master of Management, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Early-Stage companies in Iran are not exempt from this rule, but how much science and technology foresight as a time-consuming and costly process can actually lead to the improvement of the aforementioned companies' performance is questionable. This article aims to investigate the impact of science and technology foresight on various aspects of organizational performance in Early-Stage companies and a case study of Qazvin Science and Technology Park companies, which uses a balanced scorecard to measure organizational performance. The data have been collected in two ways, documentary and field. In order to collect field data, a closed questionnaire tool was used and the opinions of experts in the companies considered for the research were collected with the help of this tool. Then, in order to analyze the data, structural equation modeling was used to explain the relationships between variables. The findings of the research show that science and technology foresight significantly affects various dimensions of organizational performance in Early-Stage companies. Based on the values obtained for the path coefficients (β), science and technology foresight has the greatest impact on customer (0.881), learning (0.857), financial (0.790) and processes (0.757) dimensions respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Science & Technology Foresight
  • Early-Stage companies
  • Organizational Performance
  • Balanced Scorecard

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 26 خرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 03 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 10 آبان 1404

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