مدیریت توسعه فناوری

مدیریت توسعه فناوری

اولویت‌بندی بسته‌های فناوری هیبریدی تجدیدپذیر-دیجیتال در گذار انرژی ایران: یک چارچوب مبتنی ‌بر شبکه‌ی علّی DANP فازی در عصر صنعت نسل چهارم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه مطالعات تکنولوژی، پژوهشکده مطالعات فناوریهای نوین، سازمان پژوهش های علمی و صنعتی ایران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش، ارائه و کاربرد یک چارچوب یکپارچه مبتنی بر دنپ فازی برای اولویت‌بندی بسته‌های فناوری هیبریدی تجدیدپذیر-دیجیتال در ایران است. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و ازنظر روش، ترکیبی است. جامعه آماری، خبرگان صنعت، دولت و دانشگاه در حوزه انرژی، فناوری اطلاعات در ایران بودند و با روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه‌های مقایسات زوجی فازی و ارزیابی عملکرد بود. داده‌های فازی با روش مرکز ثقل تجمیع و نهایی شدند. تحلیل شبکه علی نشان داد معیار قابلیت دیجیتال‌شدگی با شاخص تاثیرگذاری (D-R) مثبت ۱٫۹۶ ± ۰٫۲۳، یک علت کلیدی است که بر معیارهای اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی تاثیر معناداری می‌گذارد. بر اساس وزن‌های وابسته به روابط استخراج‌شده از دنپ فازی، رتبه‌بندی نهایی بسته‌های هیبریدی به ترتیب خورشیدی-دیجیتال (امتیاز ۰٫۸۲۳)، بادی-دیجیتال (۰٫۷۶۱) و آبی-دیجیتال (۰٫۶۵۴) بدست آمد. تحلیل حساسیت با تغییر ±۲۰٪ وزن معیارهای شبکه‌ علی، پایداری این رتبه‌بندی را تأیید کرد. چارچوب پیشنهادی، با آشکارسازی نقش محوری دیجیتال‌سازی به عنوان یک محرک سیستمی، ابزار قدرتمند و عملی‌تری در اختیار سیاست‌گذاران می‌گذارد. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که سیاست‌گذاری انرژی ایران باید از حمایت صرف از فناوری‌های تجدیدپذیر فراتر رفته و بر توسعه و تسهیل سرمایه‌گذاری در بسته‌های هیبریدی هوشمند، به ویژه بسته خورشیدی-دیجیتال، متمرکز شوند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Prioritizing Renewable-Digital Hybrid Technology Bundles for Iran's Energy Transition: A Causal Network-Based Fuzzy DANP Framework in the Industry 4.0 Era

نویسندگان English

Yasser Emamian
Seyed Moslem Mousavi Dorcheh
Department of Technology Development Studies, Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

his study aims to develop and apply an integrated Fuzzy DANP-based framework for prioritizing renewable-digital hybrid technology bundles in Iran. This applied research adopts a mixed-method (survey-analytical) approach. The study population comprised experts in energy, information technology, and policy-making in Iran. Twelve participants were selected . Data collection instruments included fuzzy pairwise comparison and performance evaluation questionnaires. For data analysis, the Fuzzy DANP method was employed to model the causal network relationships among criteria and calculate dependency-based weights. The causal network analysis identified 'Digitalization Capability' as a key causal factor with a Prominence-Cause (D-R) value of +1.96 ± 0.23, significantly influencing economic and environmental criteria. Based on the dependency-based weights derived from Fuzzy ANP, the final ranking of hybrid bundles was: Solar-Digital Bundle (Score: 0.823), Wind-Digital Bundle (0.761), and Hydro-Digital Bundle (0.654). Sensitivity analysis, involving ±20% variations in the weights of key causal criteria, confirmed the stability of this ranking. The proposed framework, by revealing the central role of digitalization as a systemic driver, provides a more powerful and practical tool for policymakers. The findings suggest that Iran's energy policy should move beyond merely supporting renewable technologies and focus on fostering investment in integrated smart hybrid bundles, particularly solar-digital systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Energy Transition
Industry 4.0
Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
Dynamic DANP
Hybrid Renewable-Digital Technologies
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  • تاریخ دریافت 05 دی 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 28 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 28 اردیبهشت 1405