ارائه مدل پویای فازی برای تدوین راهبرد استوار طراحی خدمات در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت (موردمطالعه: خدمات بانکی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

2 عضو هیئت‌علمی، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

3 عضو هیئت‌علمی، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

چکیده

تغییرات سریع فناوری، انتظارات مشتریان را تحت‌تأثیر قرار داده است. از­ سوی دیگر، محیط خارج سازمان دائماً در­حال تغییر و پویایی به فراخور عدم ­قطعیت فراوان می‌باشد. براین‌اساس مسئله اساسی سازمان‌ها تدوین راهبردی است که در­صورت بروز سناریوهای مختلف آینده، قابلیت برآورد حداکثری نیازهای مشتریان را از طریق مدیریت بهینه منابع داشته باشد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارائه مدلی جهت تدوین راهبرد ­استوار برای طراحی خدمات بانکی در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت است. ازاین‌رو ضمن انتخاب یکی از بانک‌های ایران به‌عنوان موردمطالعه، مدل پویا ترسیم و اجرا شد. دراین‌راستا خبرگان بانکی متناسب‌سازی ظرفیت بانکداری باز، بانکداری الکترونیک و بانکداری سنتی با تقاضا را به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین اولویت‌های بانک مشخص کردند. با­توجه ­به نتایج آزمون تحلیل حساسیت، کاهش تعداد شعب و افزایش بودجه زیرساخت به‌عنوان راهبردهای استوار مشخص شدند؛ اما ازآنجایی‌که میزان بهینه آن‌ها در قالب مدل پویا قابل‌استخراج نبود، اهداف و محدودیت‌های تأثیرگذار در قالب مدل‌سازی ریاضی تعریف شدند. درنهایت نیز میزان بهینه شعب و بودجه مشخص شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of a fuzzy-dynamic model for developing robust services design strategy under uncertainty (Case study: Banking services)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Karimi 1
  • Abbas Toloie Eshlaghi 2
  • Nazanin Pilevari Salmasi 3
  • Reza Radfar 2
1 Ph.D. Graduate, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Faculty Member, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Faculty Member, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, West Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Rapid changes in technology have affected customer expectations. The environment is volatile. The main problem of organizations is to formulate a strategy that can maximize the customers’satisfaction in various future scenarios through optimal resource management. The purpose of this study is to provide a model for developing a robust strategy for designing banking services in conditions of uncertainty. The paper selects one of the Iranian banks as its case study. By implementing a mixed research methodology, first, it identified the reduction of the number of branches and the upgrading of the infrastructure as two robust strategies and then, it pinpoints the goals and constraints by mathematical modeling. In the conclusion, the optimal amount of branches and budget are determined.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Robust strategy
  • System Dynamics
  • Bank servies
  • Scenario
  • Fuzzy
Abbasgholipour, M. (2010). Factors affecting the performance of banks [In Persian]. Tadbir Management Scientific-Educational Monthly, 23(5). 24-35. http://tadbir.imi.ir/article-1-1242-fa.html
Alizadeh Kordabad, R., Khodaie Mahmodi, R. & Maknon, R. (2016). A combined model of scenario planning and assumption-based planning for futurology, and robust decision making in the energy sector [In Persian]. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 2(2) .7-32. http://epprjournal.ir/article-1-97-en.html
Amiri, H. (2017). Steady state planning for defense technology successful expanding readiness earning [In Persian]. Journal of Technology Development Management, 5(1). 93-116. https://doi.org/10.22104/JTDM.2018.1948.1675
Asadollah, M., Sanavifard, R., & Hamidizadeh, A. (2020). Designing an open banking model based on the emergence of open innovation [In Persian]. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 12(1), 245-268. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22286853.1400.12.45.13.7
Azar, A., & Khadivar, A. (2010). Application of system dynamics approach in higher education road mapping and policy making process [In Persian]. Journal of Science and Technology Policy, 2(4), 1-23. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20080840.1389.2.4.2.5    
Cheng, M. M., & Humphreys, K. A. (2016). Managing strategic uncertainty: The diversity and use of performance measures in the balanced scorecard. Managerial Auditing Journal, 31(4/5), 512-534. https://doi.org/10.1108/MAJ-12-2015-1286
Cosenz, F. & Noto, G. (2016). Applying system dynamics modelling to strategic management: A literature review. International Journal of Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 33(6), 703-741. https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2386
Eivazi, M. R., Keramatzadeh, A., Ghoudarzi, G. & Nezamipour, Q. (2016). The model of layerd strategy development based on scenario building in uncertainty conditions [In Persian].  Journal of Management Improvement, 10(3), 79-109. http://www.behboodmodiriat.ir/article_43144.html
Esmaeilian, M. & Nazemi, A. (2018). A model for regulatory body of new audiovisual media based on robust decision making [In Persian]. Strategies Studies of Public Policy, 8(1), 119-136. http://sspp.iranjournals.ir/article_30329.html
Feshari, M. (2018). The investigation of cyclical nature of government expenditures in Iran (Markov-switching non-linear approach) [In Persian]. Journal of Econometric Modeling, 2(5), 89-116. https://doi.org/10.22075/JEM.2018.2880
Parsafard, M., Soltani, M., Mohammadi, H., Esfidani, M., & Haghighi, M. (2013). Identifying & classification of criteria in choosing a bank by customers: Case study at Bank Mellat [In Persian]. New Marketing Research Journal, 3(2), 135-156. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_17652.html
Hanafizadeh, P., Arabi, M., & Hashemi, A. (2006). Robust strategic planning: Using scenario planning and fuzzy inference system [In Persian]. Management Research in Iran, 10(20), 137-170. https://mri.modares.ac.ir/article_322.html
Hirsch, S., Burggraf, P., & Daheim, C. (2013). Scenario planning with integrated quantification ‐ managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building. Foresight, 15(5). 363-374. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-09-2012-0064
Karimi, M., Toloie Eshlaghi, A., Pilevari, N., & Radfar. R. (2020). Identifying key variables in banking service and product under uncertainty [In Persian]. Iranian Journal of Management Sciences, 14(1), 40-59. http://journal.iams.ir/article_309.html
Romanova. I. & Kudinska. M. (2016). Banking and fintech: A challenge or opportunity? In S. Grima, F. Bezzina, I. Romānova, & R. Rupeika-Apoga (Eds.), Contemporary issues in finance: Current challenges from across Europe (contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis, Vol. 98) (pp. 21-35). Emerald Group Publishing Limited https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920160000098002
Khaji. M., Shah Hosseini, M., Pour Ezzat, A. A., & Asghari Zadeh, E. (2014). Robust approach to strategy selection considering future study concepts [In Persian]. Public Management Researches, 7(2), 87-112. https://jmr.usb.ac.ir/article_1871.html
Khodadad Hoseini, S., Hamidizadeh, M., Hoseini, S., Kassaee, M., Lashkar Boloki, M. (2011). Designing the process model of robust strategy under uncertainty [In Persian]. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 2(5), 83-109. http://www.smsjournal.ir/article_88853.html
Kouvelis, P., & Yu, G. (2013). Robust discrete optimization and its applications (Vol. 14). Springer Science & Business Media.
Khodadad Hoseini, H., & Lashkar Bloki, M. (2011). Comparative-critical analysis of techniques used for designing alive strategy in the absence of absoluteness [In Persian]. Police Management Studies Quarterly, 6(3), 353-374. http://pmsq.jrl.police.ir/article_92067.html
Mamdani, E. H., & Assilian, S. (1975). An experiment in linguistic synthesis with a fuzzy logic controller. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 7(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0020-7373(75)80002-2
Manos, R., Murinde, V., & Green, C. J. (2012). Dividend policies and Business groups: Evidence from Indian firms. International of Review of Economic and Finance, 21(1), 42-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2011.05.002
Mashayekhi. A. N., Azar. A., & Zangoeinezhad, A. (2014). A dynamic modelling for decreasing loss time average in insurance companies [In Persian]. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 18(3), 95-117. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17350794.1393.18.71.4.5
Mehrazar, A., Massah Bavani, A., Mashal, M., Rahimikhoob, H. (2016). Integrated modeling of water resources systems, agricultural and socio-economic in Hashtgerd Plain, using system dynamics approach [In Persian]. Water and Irrigation Management, 6(2), 263-280. https://doi.org/10.22059/jwim.2016.64219
Mousakhani, M. & Heidari, H. (2015). Developing a model of factors affecting the customer satisfaction in traditional and electronic banking [In Persian]. Journal of New Marketing Research, 5(1), 201-218. https://nmrj.ui.ac.ir/article_17774.html
Panizzolo, R., Biazzo, S., & Garengo, P. (2010). New product development assessment: towards a normative-contingent audit. Benchmarking. An International Journal, 17(2), 173-194. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635771011036294
Perminova, O., Gustafsson, M., & Wikstrom, K. (2008). Defining uncertainty in projects - A new perspective. International Journal of Project Management, 26(1), 73-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.08.005
Quiceno, G., Alvarez. C., Avila, R., Fernandez, O., Franco, C, J., Kunc, M., & Dyner, I. (2019). Scenario analysis for strategy design: A case study of the Colombian electricity industry. Journal of Energy Strategy Reviews, 23, 57-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.009
Radfar, R. (2013). Formulating a robust strategy using scenario programming with a fuzzy logic approach [In Persian]. Journal of Accounting Knowledge and Management Auditing, 1(4), 43-54. https://jmaak.srbiau.ac.ir/article_7362.html
Safaei, B., Mosleh Shirazi, A., Mohamadi, A., & Alimohammadlou, M. (2019). A systematic model for the diffusion of commercial soft technology in Iran’s oil industry [In Persian]. Journal of Technology Development Management, 6(3), 41-70. https://doi.org/10.22104/JTDM.2019.3028.2030  
Salahi, J., & Khademi, R. (2016). The impact of uncertainty of GDP and inflation on the sources and uses of Melli Bank [In Persian]. Journal of Financial Economy, 10(4), 17-42. http://ecj.iauctb.ac.ir/article_531643.html
Sehhat, S., Dehghanan, H., & Jalali, M. (2017). Identify and prioritize Identify and prioritize the factors affecting the success of banks development in Iran [In Persian]. Quarterly Journal of Econometric Researches and Policies, 24(4), 217-240. https://qjerp.ir/article-1-1462-en.html
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill.
Yavarzadeh, R., & Azari Yekta, F. (2015). Scenario planning, a method for supporting Strategic planning under uncertainty [In Persian]. Third National Conference on Future Studies, Tehran, Iran. https://www.sid.ir/en/seminar/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=5224