نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Technology forecasting as the first step in technology planning procedure, is defined as continuous monitoring of technological developments to evaluate its potential capability and early detection of its future applications. In developing countries, the lack of these studies in technology policy making process causes investments in R&D activities not to have desired effectiveness and put these countries far behind frontiers of technology.
In this study, in order to monitor technological developments in glaze field and forecast its future trend, related patent information was retrieved from EPO and USTPO for further analysis and evaluation. After determining essential key words, 1591 patents were retrieved for analysis. Then using text mining techniques and K-means clustering methodology, glaze technology was divided into six technological clusters: "glaze main material", "additive materials", "Special glazes", "diversity in glaze appearance", "firing equipment", and "preparation methods". Finally, technology life cycle stage was determined for each of these clusters using Bi-logistic growth curve.
Results showed that glaze technology is in maturity or saturation stage in all of its sub clusters and it would probably be replaced with other new advanced technologies in the near future.