مسیر توسعه‌ی ایران به کدام سمت است؟ تنوع بخشی مرتبط یا غیر مرتبط

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

2 عضو هیئت‌علمی، گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

3 هیئت علمی پژوهشکده سیاستگذاری، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران

4 عضو هیئت علمی، گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

چکیده

هرچند واکاوی علل، عوامل و مختصات مسیرهای توسعه ­یافتگی  کشورها، همواره از زمینه‌های مورد علاقه پژوهشگران بوده، اما تنها در سال­‌های اخیر محققان به ­دنبال کمّی­ کردن و ارائه شاخص برای این مسیرها  بوده ­اند. یکی از رویکردهای نوآیند در این رابطه «اطلس پیچیدگی اقتصادی» نام دارد که با این هدف بنیان گذاشته شده است. بر اساس این رویکرد، مشخص می شود که اگرچه معمولاً کشورهای توسعه یافته، رشد اقتصادی خودرا بر اساس مسیر"تنوع‌بخشی مرتبط" بنیان نهاده اند؛ یعنی به ­سمت صنایع مشابه صنایع موجود خود حرکت کرده ­اند؛ اما در سال ­های اخیر مشاهده شده است که کشورهایی نیز  از مسیر تنوع‌بخشی غیر­مرتبط برای توسعه ­ی خود بهره برده ­اند. در این میان، سؤال این است که مسیر توسعه­ ی ایران چگونه بوده است؟ مرتبط یا غیر­مرتبط؟ برای پاسخ به این سؤال­ ها، مقاله حاضر، 92 کشور و 727 محصول از سال 1962 تا 2016 را مورد بررسی قرار داده تا اولاً مسیرهای توسعه غیر­مرتبط کشورها را بشناسد و ثانیاً از طریق مقایسه تحلیلی، به ­درک بهتری از مسیر طی شده ایران دست یابد. نتایج نشان داد که تمرکز در صنایعی مانند صنعت نفت و معدن که درزمره صنایع اولیه است از یک‌سو و تعداد کمِ محصولات غیر­مرتبط از سوی دیگر، باعث شده است، ایران در صنایعی که عمدتاً بر منابع طبیعی استوار است به ­دام افتاده و نتواند در مسیر توسعه­ ی خود به ­سمت محصولات متنوع ­تر گام بردارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Which is the direction of Iran's development? Related or unrelated diversification?

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nava Simaee 1
  • Seyyed Sepehr Ghazinoory 2
  • Ali Maleki 3
  • Ali Shayan 4
1
2
3
4
چکیده [English]

Although the analysis of paths and factors of countries development has always been a field of interest for researchersAlthough the analysis of the causes, factors and  features of the countries’ development pathways has always been a field of interest for researchers, only in recent years, researchers have sought to quantify the distinctive attributes of national development pathways. One of the innovative approaches developed to this end, is entitled “Economic Complexity Atlas”. Based on the assumption that most of the developed countries have pursuit the pathway of related diversification for economic growth, that is, moving towards industries similar to their existing industries, it maintains that, there are a few countries which have taken advantage of unrelated diversity for their development. The question is what has been the development path of Iran? Using related or unrelated diversification? To answer these questions, the present article examines 92 countries and 727 products from 1962 to 2016, to, identify, first, the unrelated development paths of the countries and second, through analytical comparison, to gain a better understanding of the path pursued by Iran. The results showed that the focus on industries such as the oil and mining industry, which is one of the primary industries on the one hand, and the small number of unrelated products on the other hand, has caused Iran to be trapped in the industries that rely mainly on natural resources; therefore, it cannot move toward the path with more diverse products.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Related diversification
  • Unrelated diversification
  • Economic complexity
  • Product space

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مدیریت توسعه فناوری
دوره 9، شماره 3
آذر 1400
صفحه 11-36

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 01 شهریور 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 17 آبان 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 آذر 1400

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